32 nations will compete against each other over the next four and a half weeks at the FIFA World Cup in Russia, but only one team will fly home victorious. And while every fan/pundit has an opinion on who will ultimately win, much of the beauty of the game lies in its unpredictability. Football - at least the kind played in Russia these days - is a notoriously low-scoring game (just ask American sports fans about the appeal of a goalless draw), and so one wrong decision, one lost ball or one dislocated shoulder can decide the outcome of an entire season or tournament.
In order to defy the unpredictability of the game, analysts from Goldman Sachs have developed a sophisticated statistical model in an attempt to predict Germany's successor as world champions. According to their analysis, which is based on 53 different variables including team ratings, player ratings, recent performances and recent performances of opponents, Brazil is the favourite to win the title with a probability of 18.5 per cent. France is the second most likely winner with a probability of 11.3 per cent, followed by defending champions Germany (10.7 per cent).
As the following chart shows, the global public disagrees with the statistical model and believes that Germany is the most likely world champion. 23 per cent of around 12,000 respondents in a Ipsos survey27 countries expressed their confidence in Joachim Löw's team, while 21 per cent believe Brazil can win the title. England, a team known for struggling on the world stage, objectively have a better chance of winning the title than people give them credit for.
You can find more infographics at Statista
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