Probabilistic forecasts are primarily used in the fields of artificial intelligence, big data, smart data and digital transformation. They play a role wherever predictions need to be made based on large amounts of data - for example in weather forecasting, share prices or recognising attempted fraud on the internet.
A probabilistic forecast means that a single fixed result is not predicted, but that various possibilities and their probabilities are considered. So you don't get the answer "It will rain tomorrow", but "There is a 70 per cent probability that it will rain tomorrow".
Imagine using an app that tells you how likely a traffic jam is on your route. Instead of "There is a traffic jam", the app displays: "The probability of a traffic jam is 30 per cent". You can then decide for yourself whether you want to take the route or reschedule.
Probabilistic forecasts help companies and private individuals to better assess risks and make more informed decisions. They make predictions more transparent and realistic because they include uncertainties that are always present in real life.
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